Peter Martin, Director of Research & Development at Quanser, and co-chair of the Complex Systems Toolkit Working Group, reflects on the importance of engineers understanding complex systems when working in the field of intelligent robotics.

 

“In late 2024 I had the opportunity to join the EPC Complex Systems Toolkit team as co-chair of the working group. At the time I felt a little fraudulent, as the intricacies of complex systems thinking was new to me. I had brushed up against complex systems numerous times over the years as I had studied and worked in the world of robotics for over 20 years. However, I had never discovered the world of formal complex systems analysis. Looking back, this is a perfect validation for the need to create a toolkit to better prepare students for careers like mine. As I have learned more over the last 18 months about the tools and techniques that systems engineers employ to model and manage complexity, the critical value that these techniques offer engineers in the world of intelligent robotics has become obvious. As we hear often in the field of engineering lab equipment for the academic space, “I wish I’d had this when I was at university”.

The other reassuring aspect of my experience, for me, is that I’m not alone. A growing need for better approaches to managing complexity has emerged in industry over the last couple of decades as robotics and their governing systems have become increasingly integrated into society. This transition of robotics out of the structured environment of the factory floor and into direct contact with both the dynamic and unstructured world and the public, has introduced a high degree of non-linear predictability, complex interactions with multiple robotic agents, and emergent behaviours as the decision-making algorithms that dictate robotic behaviour adapt. All of these elements are central to the world of complex systems analysis.

At a high level, modern robotics systems no longer represent technical engineering challenges in the narrow, discipline-specific sense that engineers would traditionally have seen in higher education. They are complex adaptive systems that routinely demonstrate behaviours that emerge from interactions with their environment rather than being fully specified in advance. A robot navigating a hospital corridor, a swarm coordinating warehouse logistics, or a surgical assistant adjusting in real time to tissue variability represent challenges in undefined, non-linear, and largely unpredictable spaces. Students, and later robotics engineers who lack a complex systems vocabulary are essentially tasked with trying to understand emergence without the tools to describe it.

An example that I like to use is one that we encountered a couple of years ago: a team of mobile robots transporting parts around a manufacturing space. In many cases, the agents (ground robots, arms, etc.) in this scenario are programmed with independent control and decision-making code to govern their behaviour, with some overarching supervisory code to manage tasks and assignments. The ground robots would have algorithms to localise, path plan, navigate, and avoid obstacles while communicating with other complementary agents and central task management. However, as I have learned, complexity lies in the emergence of unexpected interactions between the agents and their environment. How they avoid each other and the environment while achieving their tasks is largely a complex non-linear system where conflicts can routinely delay or disrupt their operation. Introducing more sources of disruption such as humans, unstructured environments, weather conditions etc. only makes dealing with unpredictable scenarios more and more complicated using traditional techniques.

Luckily, many of the tools and techniques that are highlighted in the toolkit have direct applications to the challenges faced by engineers in the world of robotics. Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs) are an excellent way to model the feedback dynamics that are at play in adaptive control systems. When a robot’s perception system updates its world model based on changes in what the sensors can perceive, that leads to changes in its action policy that when executed create a feedback loop. These diagrams are a great way to visualise and analyse these loops. Agent-Based Modelling (ABM) is directly relevant to the scenario I described above where swarms of robot must be coordinated or manage human-robot interaction scenarios. Using these simulation tools, engineers can test and manage emergent fleet behaviour without hardware. If things do go sideways, Fault Tree Analysis is a common approach to mapping causes and evaluating data to help develop robots that work in safety-critical applications. Finally, for long-term operations such as field robotics missions, Systems Dynamics Modelling can be a useful tool for predicting and managing a robot’s resource consumption (battery, compute, bandwidth) depending on the required task performance over time.

In addition to these considerations, there is a whole world of network modelling and the management of behaviour stemming from machine learning and applied AI algorithms that also overlaps quite closely with complex systems. Engineers that understand emergence, feedback loops, and attractors are far better equipped to reason about why a robot does something unexpected, than students who only have a component-driven technical understanding of the behaviour of an intelligent robot. Beyond the decisions, at an actual component level there are critical decisions that need to be made for efficient deployment of physical and edge AI algorithms.  What data is processed locally and what goes to the cloud, when models are updated and how decision making is distributed across a robot swarm are exactly the kind of questions that systems thinking trains engineers to answer. Systems tools are ready to help, including influence diagrams to manage information exchange and action planning.

Overall, the field of complex systems introduces a set of tools, techniques, and mental models that are increasingly essential to robotics engineers that seek to prepare their agents to be effective in performing complicated tasks in increasingly complex systems.”

 

Click here to see details of our newest call for content, on the subject of intelligent robotics and its relationship to complex systems. Register your interest by 12th July 2026

Intelligent robotics, and the more recent applications to physical AI, generally refers to artificial intelligence systems that are embedded in and interact directly with the physical world, rather than operating purely in digital environments. For engineering students, learning about intelligent robotics and physical AI workflows matters because it sits at the intersection of software, hardware, and real-world problem solving. It helps engineers think holistically: not just “does the code work?” but “does the system behave safely and effectively in the real world?”. 

We are seeking experts in intelligent robotics, from academia, industry, and engineering organisations, to develop resources on this topic for publication in the Toolkit. These resources will inform, guide and aid educators to embed teaching on intelligent robotics into their engineering lessons, modules or courses.

 

This post is also available here.

 

Any views, thoughts, and opinions expressed herein are solely that of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views, opinions, policies, or position of the Engineering Professors’ Council or the Toolkit sponsors and supporters.  

Toolkit: Complex Systems Toolkit.

Author: Dr. Ewa Ura-Binczyk (Warsaw University of Technology).

Topic: Rail accident investigation and material failure analysis using systems thinking.

Title: Using fault tree analysis in a rail failure investigation.

Resource type: Teaching – Case study.

Relevant disciplines: Mineral, metallurgy & materials engineering; Civil engineering.

Keywords: Public health and safety; Risk; Fault tree analysis; Failure; Ethics; Public trust; Stakeholders; Trade offs; Uncertainty.

Licensing: This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. 

Related INCOSE Competencies: Toolkit resources are designed to be applicable to any engineering discipline, but educators might find it useful to understand their alignment to competencies outlined by the International Council on Systems Engineering (INCOSE). The INCOSE Competency Framework provides a set of 37 competencies for Systems Engineering within a tailorable framework that provides guidance for practitioners and stakeholders to identify knowledge, skills, abilities and behaviours crucial to Systems Engineering effectiveness.   A free spreadsheet version of the framework can be downloaded.

This resource relates to the Systems Thinking, Systems Modelling and Analysis, Ethics and Professionalism, Technical Leadership and Critical Thinking INCOSE Competencies.

AHEP4 mapping: This resource addresses several of the themes from the UK’s Accreditation of Higher Education Programmes fourth edition (AHEP4): Analytical Tools and Techniques (critical to the ability to model and solve problems), and Integrated / Systems Approach (essential to the solution of broadly-defined problems). In addition, this resource addresses AHEP themes of Design, Ethics and Communication. 

Educational level: Intermediate; Advanced.

 

Learning and teaching notes:

The case is built around 3 × 90-minute sessions and independent report writing. A suggested breakdown of the activities can be seen below. 

Learners have the opportunity to: 

Teachers have the opportunity to: 

 

Downloads: 

 

Learning and teaching resources:

 

Session  Focus  Suggested activities and timing 
1  Introduction and problem framing  20 min: Introduce case scenario and system context; 30 min: Group discussion on initial impressions, key stakeholders, and potential causes; 40 min: Begin Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) construction using initial evidence. 
2  Investigation and analysis  30 min: Continue FTA construction and data evaluation; 30 min: Peer review of other groups’ fault trees; 30 min: Consolidate findings and prepare draft report outline. 
3  Reporting and reflection  30 min: Present findings to a simulated stakeholder panel; 30 min: Discuss feedback and defend conclusions; 30 min: Individual reflection on complexity, uncertainty, and assumptions. 

 

Summary of the system or context:

Rail transport systems consist of thousands of interdependent components, including rails, fasteners, sleepers, signalling systems, and maintenance processes. Failures in a single component can cascade, affecting: 

 

Complex system features: 

 

Narrative of the case:

On a cold January morning, a commuter train was halted after inspectors discovered a fractured rail joint component. Services were disrupted for several hours, stranding thousands of passengers. The media quickly picked up the story, raising questions about safety and reliability. 

The rail operator urgently commissioned an engineering consultancy (the students) to investigate the failure. Their findings will inform both the safety authority’s decision on whether the line can reopen and the legal proceedings to determine liability. 

 

The dilemma: 

As consultants, students face incomplete evidence: some lab tests are missing, inspection logs are inconsistent, and eyewitness accounts conflict. They must use Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) to map possible causes, evaluate data, and produce an expert opinion report — knowing that their conclusions could influence legal outcomes and public safety decisions. 

Groups: 3–5 students per group; 3-4 groups can run in parallel. 

Materials required: case narrative handouts, sample inspection log, example FTA, whiteboards/flipcharts, sticky notes for FTA mapping. 

Activity flow: 

1. Introduce case and assign roles. 

2. Construct initial fault trees using evidence. 

3. Peer-review across groups. 

4. Draft expert report and present to simulated stakeholder panel. 

5. Individual reflection on complexity and uncertainty. 

 

Why use Fault Tree Analysis (FTA):

FTA is a structured approach to trace a failure from an observed event back to potential causes, including technical, human, and organisational factors. 

FTA is particularly suitable for this case because it allows students to structure complex, uncertain information in a logical and transparent way. It helps them trace the chain of causes behind the rail component failure, linking material, human, and organisational factors into one coherent framework. By visualising how small events combine into system-level failures, FTA encourages learners to think critically about interdependencies, data gaps, and assumptions. It also mirrors real-world engineering investigations, where professionals must justify conclusions under uncertainty and demonstrate clear reasoning to stakeholders such as regulators or courts. 

Advantages in this case: 

 

Questions and activities: 

Prompt  Expected insight / reflection 
What technical, human, and organisational factors might have contributed to this failure?  Students identify multiple interacting factors, illustrating interdependencies and emergent risks. 
How does Fault Tree Analysis help structure uncertainty in this investigation?  Learners recognise FTA’s role in visualising cause-effect pathways and clarifying assumptions. 
Which assumptions are you forced to make, and how might they affect your conclusions?  Students reflect on data gaps, biased observations, and ethical implications of assumptions. 
How do different stakeholders’ interests shape urgency and framing of your analysis?  Learners understand trade-offs, pressures from conflicting priorities, and the precautionary principle. 
What are the risks of issuing a preliminary report under time pressure?  Students explore implications for safety, liability, professional integrity, and public trust. 

 

Activity  Focus  What “good practice” looks like  Facilitator notes / tips 
1. FTA construction  Collaborative problem analysis  Teams discuss evidence openly, question assumptions, and co-create a logical tree linking technical, human, and organisational causes.   Encourage each group to identify at least one “human/organisational” branch and to label any data gaps explicitly. 
2. Peer review  Critical reflection and systems perspective  Groups provide constructive critique, highlighting hidden assumptions, missing branches, or unclear logic. Dialogue stays professional and evidence-based.  Provide coloured sticky notes or digital comments to record feedback; model how to frame critique as questions (“Have you considered…?”). 
3. Report writing (in-class drafting)  Synthesis and professional communication  Drafts show a clear, defensible reasoning chain from evidence to conclusion. Teams justify assumptions and note uncertainties.  Remind students to separate “facts” from “interpretations.” Encourage use of structured headings (Findings – Analysis – Conclusions). 
4. Simulation role-Play  Perspective-taking and communication under pressure  Presentations are concise (≤5 min), factual, and adapted to stakeholder roles. Learners respond respectfully and clearly to challenging questions.  Provide role cards for the panel (operator, regulator, manufacturer, public). Rotate students if possible. 
5. Reflection  Metacognition and learning from uncertainty  Students identify what surprised them, what they found ambiguous, and how their view of engineering judgment evolved.  Offer prompts like “What would you do differently next time?” or “Where did your reasoning feel uncertain?” 

 

Further challenge:

Instructors may choose to introduce a second “reveal” phase: a new metallurgical test result or a whistle-blower statement emerges halfway through the case. Students must revise their fault tree and defend whether and how their conclusions change. This highlights the evolving nature of complex systems investigations. 

 

Assessment opportunities:

 

 

Any views, thoughts, and opinions expressed herein are solely that of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views, opinions, policies, or position of the Engineering Professors’ Council or the Toolkit sponsors and supporters.  

 

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